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Skipper Pat Cummins has admitted that his involvement in the opening Ashes Test appears unlikely due to persistent fitness concerns.

Media speculation from Australia had suggested that Cummins might be ruled out of the entire series, though the fast bowler himself has now given a more detailed update on his situation.

Injury Timeline

The 32-year-old has been struggling with a back stress injury that has kept him sidelined since his last professional game in July.

While Cummins has restarted running training, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his rehabilitation program.

"I wouldn't put a percentage on it, but my assessment is probably less likely than likely," commented Cummins. "We get into begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on turf."

Fitness Requirements

Team mentor Andrew McDonald had previously indicated that Cummins would require a minimum of four weeks of bowling preparation to have any opportunity of featuring in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.

Cummins echoed this assessment, explaining: "It's necessary to have at least probably a month in the nets. If you participate in a Test match, you want to ensure you're capable to bowl 20 overs in a day without worry."

Series Implications

Given the compressed timeframe, there are also concerns about Cummins' availability for the second Test in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unavailable, former skipper Steve Smith is expected to captain the side, with Scott Boland potentially stepping in in the pace department.

Australia have held the Ashes urn since 2018, while England are without a Test win in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current fitness issues mirror challenges from earlier in his distinguished career. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the youngest-ever player to take a five-wicket haul in an innings at that time.

However, his explosive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins experienced six years before his second Test appearance due to repeated stress fractures in his lower back.

Career Achievements

When fit, Cummins has proven himself as one of cricket's premier fast bowlers. The 32-year-old has taken 309 Test wickets at an remarkable average of 22.10.

His record in Australia is even more formidable, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has taken 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and confirming his importance to the Australian side.

As skipper, Cummins enjoyed a glorious 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's triumphant World Test Championship final and starring in their 50-over World Cup final win against India.

He remains the only leader in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Team Concerns

England also face their own injury worries with captain Ben Stokes, who has been troubled by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be monitoring their key players closely as the highly anticipated Ashes series nears.