Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The average count of per-day killings per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent government statistics. However, public safety specialists have warned that murder data could fail to point to enhanced national security.

Marked Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This announcement was shared by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had over these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the lowest amount of murders were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's heavily military efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, security analysts cautioned that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the will to properly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly an issue because it may hide periods when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But despite these actions, Mexico remains grappling with high violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to create a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.