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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."