🔗 Share this article

At an lavish speakeasy-style gathering at the Raffles hotel on Whitehall recently, the great and the good from the remaining ranks within Tory circles marked the Spectator’s parliamentarian of the year awards.

Given the publication's stance still just about backing the Tories, despite the party confront severe challenges posed by Reform, it was unsurprising that much of the gossip during the upscale reception focused on the security of the leader's position faced threats.

Leadership Rivalries Emerge at Ceremony

James Cleverly, a former leadership contender, made pointed remarks from the stage at the naked ambition of a fellow frontbencher, Robert Jenrick – who is Badenoch’s biggest threat.

“Do I seek her position? Will I make a move against the leader to take over? No, of course I’m not,” the veteran Tory cabinet minister told the laughing audience as he opened the awards ceremony.

The runner-up from last year, has recently shifted alarmingly to the right to take on Nigel Farage, did at least manage to chuckle. His strategic moves are far from discreet.

Countdown to Leadership Contest Starts

Earlier this year, one of the Tory leader’s disgruntled backbenchers set up a countdown clock online showing remaining time before party regulations permit rivals to mount a challenge. That period concludes this weekend.

From then on, opponents within the party can formally request a leadership election. Revised guidelines established recently to increase the threshold, now demanding thirty percent of the party’s 119 MPs must endorse, previously just fifteen percent, creating a higher bar for potential challengers.

Potential Contenders and Backing

But could any putative rivals – Jenrick foremost among them – secure support from colleagues required to start the process? Party sources reference previous nomination totals in the leadership contest: twenty-eight initially. “That’s your starting point,” according to insiders.

There is no shortage of Conservative legislators ready to express dissatisfaction with the leader: her style, her decision-making, her ability to cut through. However, generally, they remain cautious about committing yet another act of political regicide at this time.

Respite and Election Anxieties

Several party members also believe her performance during the fall gathering, unveiling plans to remove property tax on primary homes, has bought her a few months of breathing space.

“Although dissatisfied with Kemi’s leadership but we’ll be very careful about getting rid of her. The public already think we fight like rats in a sack. We should avoid providing further confirmation,” an anonymous legislator stated.

That is not to say the plotting is not under way. “Kemi has until May. The local elections are going to be cataclysmic for the party. No one will desire to assume leadership preemptively and bear responsibility. But afterwards, we must find a leader capable of guiding toward renewal,” one shadow cabinet minister commented.

Survey Figures and Public Perception

The polls already suggest the leader has gained minimal ground with the public in the past twelve months with declining in terms of her personal ratings. At -22 points, her standing is lower compared to her rival and Mel Stride (-21), according to Ipsos Mori.

Data from YouGov further reveals that Badenoch has convinced only 12% of Britons she is a prime minister in waiting. However, the picture is better among Conservative voters, with 54% saying she has done a good job as party leader, with fewer than a third saying she should not lead the party into the next general election.

Future Scenarios and Party Dynamics

But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, a general agreement exists among the MPs that a change is inevitable to lead the party into the next election.

The key disagreement centers on timing for a spring leadership change and have a chance at stopping Reform’s momentum – or leave it until closer the election date when Farage might have imploded, and public receptiveness improves to listen to the Tories again.

Widely known that Jenrick thinks he is the man for the job. But his allies say he has no plans to move now, and agrees with those advocating patience until May.

Other Contenders and Strategies

There is also a theory that the party’s potential saviour may end up being somebody less prominent figures (one junior minister Claire Coutinho gets mentioned) or among newer MPs with less obvious links to the party’s time in power.

Another former candidate, is also cited as a potentially unifying figure, remaining reserved. Supporters indicate he sees no better option but to carry on with Badenoch, since a new leader immediately would face greater challenges.

However, if a contest were to be triggered, some would certainly urging Cleverly to stand, and he may be persuadable to give it another shot. Several moderate legislators are already preparing a rearguard action to block the frontrunner leader in any eventual contest.

Rightward Shift and Political Calculations

An influential insider warned how the “energy is all on the right” both inside and outside the Conservative party, mentioning names like several prominent MPs. “It is a chance for James given his experience and the relationship with members, and some want to stop Robert at any costs.”

“Many are considering are on the need for a pact or coalition with Reform at some stage. Recent parliamentary divisions regarding social issues there was a lot of calls for expulsion who voted for those out the party’ while Reform privately is ‘you’ve got some Lib Dems sympathizers must go. That tips things in Robert’s favour a bit.”

Yet another source noted: “The outcome remains uncertain. We could have a strong competition between Jenrick and another – Cleverly, Stride. The idea that the rightwing candidate always wins the membership is not necessarily the case.”